I think what they are saying is just part of a picture. Another very important piece is how much are those casual convenience pirates are willing to pay, and how much it will ultimately be when aggregated. Will the music industry grow because the better access to music will boost the sales, or will it shrink because equally good access to reasonably good music for free exists? That, in my opinion, is a very important piece of puzzle.

interesting

Now, suppose that the camcording is not harmful but helpful. And suppose that the file sharing is not clearly harmful. These two assumptions are probably not that outrageous.

And now, suppose that MPAA is smart enough to be aware of these facts, or possibilities. What is the best strategy for MPAA? In my view, they would of course want to have more control over flow of contents, so that they can monetize it better. And in the meantime, camcording and file sharing would be used as the reasons for their need for tighter control.

There might even be an incentive for MPAA to let those "insiders" to leak movies for file sharing, because that will actually strengthen their claim that their business is damaged tremendously while it is not clear at all if there is actually a damage.

Is this too much speculation?