With Wall Street’s big guns having returned from their summer vacations, it was time again to push the buy and sell buttons. Today, despite low volume and short covering, the sentiment was bullish. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now positioned in regards to their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +3.65% International TTI: +2.51% I can no longer ignore the fact that the international TTI has now moved solidly above the line so, effective tomorrow, Wednesday, I will move back into that market. Depending on portfolio size, I will use an allocation to broadly diversified international funds/ETFs of anywhere from 15% to 30%. As always, I will set my trailing sell stop at 7%.

Continued bad housing news, and lingering credit problems along with dimmed hopes for an interest rate cut, pulled the major market indexes lower. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated as well but are remaining above their respective trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +3.34% International TTI: +1.59% Today, I ventured back into broadly diversified international funds, as announced yesterday. Because of the proximity of the International TTI to its trend line, I will use the 7% sell stop point of my new fund holding as my exit strategy. This will allow me to give the market some room to move and will hopefully avoid a whip-saw signal in case the International TTI heads south again. I will keep you posted as to any changes.

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Sharp downside action caused by a weak payroll report pulled all major indexes lower, but the current Buy signals were not affected. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs moved lower to +2.91% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index also remained +0.60% above its own trend line, keeping us still on the positive side. For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

After the markets meandered for most of the day, I liquidated 2 positions that had dropped off their highs by -7.5% as announced yesterday. Of course, I had no idea that my trades were so influential that they confused Wall Street traders and promptly ignited a strong rebound rally during the last hour. While all major indexes closed higher, it was clearly a party of one, as the Dow was the king of the Street for today. If this feels like a roller coaster to you, you are not alone. Increased volatility may stay with us for a while and is an indication that the market is in a shakeout mode. That simply means that future direction is uncertain and a break either way can occur at anytime. For tomorrow, none of my other sell stops have been triggered, so I will watch and wait.

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Today’s sharp sell-off brought several of our sell stops back into play. We will liquidate those positions on Monday. For more details, please see the above link. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs fell but still remains +1.45% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index has now moved to +1.21% above its own trend line, as you can see below: For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Yesterday’s rebound, which recovered just amount all of last Friday’s losses, was a welcome relief but huge one day market moves, whether up or down, are rarely indicative of a trend. As I mentioned last Friday, I liquidated a few volatile positions with sector and country orientations. The sell stop points were clearly penetrated and, if this is in fact only a temporary bounce, we’ll be glad to have taken some volatility out of our portfolios. If this rebound turns out to be the resumption of the long-term trend, we’ll be looking for other opportunities. Right now, I prefer to err on the side of caution. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) recovered as well and remain above their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.61% International TTI: +2.53% Most of my domestic and international positions have stayed above their sell stop points, and I will hold them until market activity tells me otherwise. All eyes are now on the Fed for any hint that they are willing to throw an assist should the markets need it. Well, even the “Donald” (as in Trump) has thrown his name into the game on CNBC as he called for a rate cut. Hmm, he just can’t stand not being in the limelight.

Today’s steep sell off (based on the continued spread of the subprime virus) did not affect any of our sell stops. Since I had liquidated some of our more volatile holdings in some country and sector funds last week, we are left with positions that have been fairly stable. Most of them have come off their highs by 4%-5%, which means there is still a little “play room” until the 7% sell level gets triggered. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rallied early in the week and are, as of today, positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.54% International TTI: +3.07% We will hold all positions subject to our sell rules.

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Tremendous market swings to the upside and downside left the bulls coming out ahead by a small margin. For more details, please see the above link. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs rose and still remains +2.00% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index has now moved to +1.67% above its own trend line, as you can see below: For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Another steep sell off has moved our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) within striking distance of an all out Sell signal. As of today, the TTIs are positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +0.87% International TTI: +0.34% Over the past few weeks, I have been liquidating those holdings that have triggered our sell stop points, and I will eliminate a few more tomorrow. My guess is that by the time we receive an all out Sell signal, we will have moved most of our assets to the safety of the money market accounts. With the subprime fallout taking more prisoners almost daily, interest sensitive instruments like tax-free ETFs have been shook up as well. It seems that there currently is no orientation that is exempt from catching the down draft. I have started and will continue to liquidate those positions that have performed the worst. If necessary, I will post more updates after the close of the market on a daily basis.

Yesterday’s sell off continued today in the face of a rally attempt that ended up giving the bears the upper hand. As of today, the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: -0.10% International TTI: -1.30% The domestic TTI barely crossed to the downside, so the risk of a reversal back to positive territory certainly exists. I will therefore continue selling only those remaining domestic equity funds/ETFs that have dropped through their sell stop points, but will hold off with an all-out Sell until the TTI confirms its position by staying below the trend line over the next day or two. The story is different with the International TTI, which has clearly broken through to the downside by -1.30%. This signals a Sell for all broadly diversified international equity funds, and I will liquidate the one remaining position I still have. Should market action warrant a daily update, I will do so and hope to have it posted by 4 pm PST.