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Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 9/4/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 12:10:00 -0400

With Wall Street’s big guns having returned from their summer vacations, it was time again to push the buy and sell buttons. Today, despite low volume and short covering, the sentiment was bullish. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now positioned in regards to their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +3.65% International TTI: +2.51% I can no longer ignore the fact that the international TTI has now moved solidly above the line so, effective tomorrow, Wednesday, I will move back into that market. Depending on portfolio size, I will use an allocation to broadly diversified international funds/ETFs of anywhere from 15% to 30%. As always, I will set my trailing sell stop at 7%. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 9/4/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 9/5/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 12:09:00 -0400

Continued bad housing news, and lingering credit problems along with dimmed hopes for an interest rate cut, pulled the major market indexes lower. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated as well but are remaining above their respective trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +3.34% International TTI: +1.59% Today, I ventured back into broadly diversified international funds, as announced yesterday. Because of the proximity of the International TTI to its trend line, I will use the 7% sell stop point of my new fund holding as my exit strategy. This will allow me to give the market some room to move and will hopefully avoid a whip-saw signal in case the International TTI heads south again. I will keep you posted as to any changes. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 9/5/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 9/6/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 12:08:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Sharp downside action caused by a weak payroll report pulled all major indexes lower, but the current Buy signals were not affected. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs moved lower to +2.91% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index also remained +0.60% above its own trend line, keeping us still on the positive side. For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 9/6/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/1/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 12:04:00 -0400

After the markets meandered for most of the day, I liquidated 2 positions that had dropped off their highs by -7.5% as announced yesterday. Of course, I had no idea that my trades were so influential that they confused Wall Street traders and promptly ignited a strong rebound rally during the last hour. While all major indexes closed higher, it was clearly a party of one, as the Dow was the king of the Street for today. If this feels like a roller coaster to you, you are not alone. Increased volatility may stay with us for a while and is an indication that the market is in a shakeout mode. That simply means that future direction is uncertain and a break either way can occur at anytime. For tomorrow, none of my other sell stops have been triggered, so I will watch and wait. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/1/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/2/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 12:03:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Today’s sharp sell-off brought several of our sell stops back into play. We will liquidate those positions on Monday. For more details, please see the above link. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs fell but still remains +1.45% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index has now moved to +1.21% above its own trend line, as you can see below: For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 8/2/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/6/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:46:00 -0400

Yesterday’s rebound, which recovered just amount all of last Friday’s losses, was a welcome relief but huge one day market moves, whether up or down, are rarely indicative of a trend. As I mentioned last Friday, I liquidated a few volatile positions with sector and country orientations. The sell stop points were clearly penetrated and, if this is in fact only a temporary bounce, we’ll be glad to have taken some volatility out of our portfolios. If this rebound turns out to be the resumption of the long-term trend, we’ll be looking for other opportunities. Right now, I prefer to err on the side of caution. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) recovered as well and remain above their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.61% International TTI: +2.53% Most of my domestic and international positions have stayed above their sell stop points, and I will hold them until market activity tells me otherwise. All eyes are now on the Fed for any hint that they are willing to throw an assist should the markets need it. Well, even the “Donald” (as in Trump) has thrown his name into the game on CNBC as he called for a rate cut. Hmm, he just can’t stand not being in the limelight. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/6/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/9/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:44:00 -0400

Today’s steep sell off (based on the continued spread of the subprime virus) did not affect any of our sell stops. Since I had liquidated some of our more volatile holdings in some country and sector funds last week, we are left with positions that have been fairly stable. Most of them have come off their highs by 4%-5%, which means there is still a little “play room” until the 7% sell level gets triggered. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) rallied early in the week and are, as of today, positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.54% International TTI: +3.07% We will hold all positions subject to our sell rules. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/9/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/9/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:43:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php Tremendous market swings to the upside and downside left the bulls coming out ahead by a small margin. For more details, please see the above link. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs rose and still remains +2.00% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index has now moved to +1.67% above its own trend line, as you can see below: For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 8/9/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/14/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:06:00 -0400

Another steep sell off has moved our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) within striking distance of an all out Sell signal. As of today, the TTIs are positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +0.87% International TTI: +0.34% Over the past few weeks, I have been liquidating those holdings that have triggered our sell stop points, and I will eliminate a few more tomorrow. My guess is that by the time we receive an all out Sell signal, we will have moved most of our assets to the safety of the money market accounts. With the subprime fallout taking more prisoners almost daily, interest sensitive instruments like tax-free ETFs have been shook up as well. It seems that there currently is no orientation that is exempt from catching the down draft. I have started and will continue to liquidate those positions that have performed the worst. If necessary, I will post more updates after the close of the market on a daily basis. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/14/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/15/2007: Sell International Funds/ETFs

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:04:00 -0400

Yesterday’s sell off continued today in the face of a rally attempt that ended up giving the bears the upper hand. As of today, the Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are positioned in regards to their long-term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: -0.10% International TTI: -1.30% The domestic TTI barely crossed to the downside, so the risk of a reversal back to positive territory certainly exists. I will therefore continue selling only those remaining domestic equity funds/ETFs that have dropped through their sell stop points, but will hold off with an all-out Sell until the TTI confirms its position by staying below the trend line over the next day or two. The story is different with the International TTI, which has clearly broken through to the downside by -1.30%. This signals a Sell for all broadly diversified international equity funds, and I will liquidate the one remaining position I still have. Should market action warrant a daily update, I will do so and hope to have it posted by 4 pm PST. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/15/2007:, Sell, International, Funds/ETFs,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/16/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:02:00 -0400

Many people like to travel to places like Las Vegas for life changing experiences or to live on the edge—at least for a few days. If you have that tendency as well, you were in luck this week. All you had to do is turn on the financial markets and you would have gotten more than your monies worth of excitement. Especially today proved again that using intra day stop loss points is simply not a good idea as I posted about before. The Dow was down over 340 points at one time but a last hour rally along with short covering turned this potential disaster day into a non-event, if you go by closing figures. Even in my post this morning, I could not see a recovery from my vantage point. Well, that tells you that assumptions should simply not be made. I also mentioned that the closing of the gap can sometimes signal a turn in market direction. While it’s too early to tell, it now appears to be at least a possibility. Today’s effect on our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) was very small, but the domestic TTI moved back into positive territory, while the international TTI headed further south: Domestic TTI: +0.23% International TTI: -1.91% As announced yesterday, I sold my last international holding, but will hang on to my remaining domestic positions subject to my sell stop or the domestic TTI’s further move below its long term trend line; whichever occurs first. If you’ve sent me an e-mail, you’re not the only one. It will take me a few days to catch up, so please be patient Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/16/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/16/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:01:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php To describe the markets of providing a roller coaster ride would be an understatement. For more details about this week’s action, please see the above link. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs fell but still remains +1.33% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index has now moved to -0.92% below its own trend line, which generated a Sell signal effective 8/15/07, as you can see below: For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 8/16/2007,

From the ETF/No Load Fund Investing Archives: Controversial Words Of Wisdom

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 11:00:00 -0400

Mark Twain said it best in this quote: “When you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.” To my way of thinking, this certainly holds true when it comes to handling your money. There are few advisors and others who don’t believe in the Wall Street induced herd instinct type of investing. It has proven to be one a sided “win” situation with the masses of investors usually being left stranded on the street licking their wounds after another failed attempt to stay fully invested during a bear market. If you are new to investing, these words may not mean much to you because you haven’t lost enough money to appreciate them. If you’ve been around the block for a while (translation: a severe bear market), you should have learned (hopefully) how to adjust your investment approach. One of the books I referred to in a recent post to on this subject was Al Thomas’s “If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It.” While Al covers a variety of investment areas, the book is easy to understand and contains words of wisdom from over 40 years of exposure to the financial industry. He has no ax to grind and no allegiances. He calls it as he sees it, which is very rare, nor does he care if anybody is offended, which makes him my kind of a guy. I have gone through his mutual fund section, which advocates trend tracking, and picked out a few gems that you might consider adapting: 1. Mr. William O’Neil, on of the market technicians and found of Investor’s Business Daily, did a study that found that between 1953 and 1993, 67% of the move upward in any stock can be credited to the positive advance of the Industry Group of the Market Sector to which it belongs. A more recent study shows 49% of the move of any stock is due to the industry itself, 31% to the general market movement and 20% to the company itself. This is ‘proof’ that research is nonsense. Just because the research report on a company is good doesn’t mean it’s going up unless the entire industry group catches fire. Birds of a feather flock together. 2. You leave the picking of the individual stocks to the mutual fund manager. That is his job. You want the best mutual fund manager on the street “at that time.” You can find him not by name because his name is unimportant, but by performance of his fund. You want the fund that is outperforming all the other funds. You want get on the ‘up escalator’ with him and follow him to the top. When he doesn’t seem to be able to go any higher, you get off. Take the next escalator to the higher level following another fund manager. I have no idea who is managing the funds I own and, you know what—I don’t care. That is the way I want you to picture the stock market—you riding gently, easily and steadily up to a level where you get off one mutual fund which has leveled off and choosing another one for the ride to the next higher level. That’s what rotation is all about. 3. Another great fallacy of the mutual fund gurus is “expense ratios.” They tell you not to invest in any fund that has expenses over 1-1/2%. Who cares what the expense ratio is if that fund makes 40% or more annually? The same for 12b-1 expenses. Who cares? Show me the bottom line. That’s all that counts. Basic rule: Follow the money! Even though Al’s book was written years ago, his wisdom gained by years in the trenches is simply timeless. It advocates exactly what I have been saying in my weekly updates and in my blog: Focus on being invested only during up trends in the markets, avoid the bear at all costs and disregard Wall Street’s self serving stories. Tagged by devika under From, the, ETF/No, Load, Fund, Investing, Archives:, Controversial, Words, Of, Wisdom,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/20/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:57:00 -0400

Yesterday’s market activity had no effect on our investment plans despite the ever present volatility. I am in still in a holding position waiting for the markets to decide on future direction before making any further adjustments. The Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are situated relative to their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +1.47% International TTI: -0.74% I did liquidate a few of our tax-free closed end fund holdings since some of them had declined beyond what is acceptable, which was caused by the credit crunch (interest rate gyrations) from the subprime fallout. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/20/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/22/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:56:00 -0400

Yesterday’s market bounce, although on low volume, was a step in the right direction. It’s too early to tell if this is the beginning of another uptrend or just a head fake. Many traders are still on vacation and will not be back to their desks pushing buy and sell buttons till after Labor Day. Until then, any moves to the upside or downside may not have much meaning. The Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now situated relative to their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.30% International TTI: +0.46% As you can see, the International TTI recovered and barely broke back above its long term trend line. To avoid a whipsaw, I will hold off making any commitments in that arena until I can better determine if this is a sustainable trend or simply sideways action. I am looking at some sector opportunities and may make some investments in those areas that have best withstood the recent sell off. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/22/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/23/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:55:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php A quiet but positive bullish week had all major indexes gaining solidly. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs recovered and has now moved to +2.85% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index also moved to +1.64% above its own trend line, which puts it back on the positive side. For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 8/23/2007,

Introducing The M-Index: Major Upgrade To The No Load Fund/ETF Tracker

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:53:00 -0400

After months of work, I am pleased to announce that the weekly StatSheet has been improved by adding an additional column called the M-Index (Momentum Index). The M-Index represents one momentum number, which you can use to simply and quickly identify the top performing funds/ETFs in any category. Since it is calculated based on the average of the existing momentum figures (4wk, 8wk, 12wk, YTD), you no longer have to agonize as to which one might be most important factor for your selection process: The higher the M-Index number, the stronger the upside momentum of that fund/ETF. It does not mean that a high M-Index is right for you as it also indicates the most volatility. If you’re more conservative, drop down a number or 2 on the ranking system. Starting with next week’s issue, all StatSheet tables will be sorted by the M-Index in descending order. Want to have a sneak preview? Take a look at the current ETF Master list featuring 470 ETFs. It is updated through 8/24/07. Feel free to e-mail me a comment if you like. While I will read all comments, I may not be able to respond to all of them. Tagged by devika under Introducing, The, M-Index:, Major, Upgrade, To, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/27/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:52:00 -0400

Yesterday’s market activity had little influence on our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs). Disappointing housing data were too much to overcome and the Dow slipped some 57 points. The Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are now situated relative to their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.64% International TTI: +1.00% Even though the international TTI remains slightly above its long-term trend line, I will hold off making any commitments in that area most likely until after Labor Day. Wall Street’s big guns will be returning then, and we should (hopefully) be getting a better idea as to the direction of the trend. With the markets opening sharply lower today, I will report again tomorrow as to any effects on our trading plans. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/27/2007,

Special No Load Fund/ETF Tracker Update For 8/29/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:50:00 -0400

If you felt like a yo-yo over the past couple of days watching the activity on Wall Street, you’re not alone. After yesterday’s sharp losses, the market came back with a vengeance and erased most of the deficit. The good news of this roller coaster ride is that there seems to be a threshold where buyers can’t resist stepping back in and pushing the market out of the doldrums. If these lower levels hold, I would view this as a stepping stone which may form the basis for further upside moves. Of course, Fed chairman Bernanke’s letter saying the bank will ‘act as needed’ cheered the crowd and no doubt contributed greatly to the rebound. Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) recovered as well and are hugging their long term trend lines as follows: Domestic TTI: +2.46% International TTI: +0.92% Again, as previously announced, I will wait for further upside confirmation before moving back into the international markets. Let’s see if tomorrow brings some more excitement. Tagged by devika under Special, No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, Update, For, 8/29/2007,

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/30/2007

devika — Mon, 10 Sep 2007 10:49:00 -0400

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at: http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php A week of roller coaster actions left most investors more than ready for a long weekend. Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs vacillated and has now moved to +3.02% above its long-term trend line (red) as the chart below shows: The international index also moved to +1.59% above its own trend line, which puts it back on the positive side. For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link. Tagged by devika under No, Load, Fund/ETF, Tracker, updated, through, 8/30/2007,